macro transmission · stylized model
Drag the controls to see how a change in expected oil supply — from war-driven contraction risk to easing/expansion — flows through inflation and interest-rate expectations into the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) market. Then layer on the other forces that move the QQQ demand curve and watch them soften or amplify the shock.
Expected oil supply
The single biggest driver here. Contraction risk (right) shifts the oil supply curve left and pushes prices up; expected expansion (left) shifts it right and pulls prices down.
oil price ▲ → inflation & rate expectations ▲ → discount rate ▲ → QQQ demand shifts ◀
Other forces on the QQQ demand curve
The oil-driven rate shock is never the whole story. These four levers shift demand independently — and can blunt or magnify the move above.
How the move breaks down
Each contribution to the net QQQ change. Green offsets red (softening); red stacked on red (amplifying).
Reference — what else moves the demand curve
Beyond the four live levers, these forces routinely soften or amplify an oil-driven repricing of QQQ.
The actual discount rate. Rising yields are the direct mechanism that knocks value off long-dated tech cash flows; falling yields lift them.
Whether the central bank "looks through" an oil-driven inflation blip or tightens against it decides how much of the shock reaches equities.
QQQ's earnings sit far in the future, so it is high-duration and reacts more to any rate change than shorter-duration value indices like the Dow.
A strong secular growth story can overwhelm a rate headwind — robust guidance has repeatedly let tech climb through geopolitical noise.
On escalation days, safe-haven flight out of equities adds a second leftward demand shift on top of the rate effect.
A stronger dollar and bid for Treasuries/gold can pull capital out of equities, while also signaling the flight that pressures multiples.
Corporate buybacks and passive inflows are steady demand that cushions selloffs; thin liquidity does the opposite.
Quarterly Nasdaq-100 reshuffles swap constituents in and out, shifting QQQ's composition and rate-sensitivity independent of any macro news.